Thinktankery

Method

Each paper is scored 0–4 on eight criteria of research method, using the anchored descriptions below. A criterion that genuinely does not apply (for example, research design in a paper making no causal claims) is marked N/A and the remaining weights are rescaled. The paper score is the weighted mean, scaled 0–100.

How a paper is scored

  1. Collected politely. We follow each site's robots.txt, identify ourselves, and make at most one request every five seconds per site. A site that blocks automated access is never worked around; its papers are added by hand.
  2. Read by code first. Text is extracted page by page. Code re-does the paper's own arithmetic where it states its inputs, and checks intervals and units.
  3. Identifying details reduced. Institute and author names, forewords, endorsements and author biographies are removed from the text the models assess. Subject and style can still identify a source, so we claim reduced identifying information, not blindness.
  4. Evidence gathered, then scored. One model assembles page-referenced evidence for each criterion; a stronger model scores from that evidence and reads the full paper when the evidence is uncertain, when code checks found problems, and for a random 10% audit sample.
  5. Every quote verified. Code checks every cited quote against the cited page. A paper whose evidence does not verify is not published.
  6. Signed off by a person. Nothing is published until a reviewer approves it.

Limits we know about

Rubric v1

C1 Claim calibration weight 20

Do the headline and executive-summary claims match the strength of evidence the body and appendices actually provide?

4Headline claims match the body's strength of evidence exactly.
3Headline broadly matches the evidence; minor overstatement or missing qualifiers.
2Headline overstates in places; key qualifications appear only in the body.
1Headline materially overstates the evidence (e.g. certainty or causation the body does not establish), though without explicit contradiction.
0Headline asserts causal or certain effects that the body or appendix explicitly disclaims.
C2 Uncertainty carried through weight 15

Are intervals, significance and uncertainty reported and propagated into derived figures?

4Intervals and significance reported and propagated consistently into every derived figure.
3Uncertainty reported and mostly propagated; minor gaps.
2Intervals reported for primary estimates but not carried into derived figures, or inconsistently computed.
1Uncertainty mentioned for some estimates but absent from the figures the paper leads with.
0No intervals, or intervals dropped or misreported in downstream figures.
C3 Research design weight 15N/A only if the paper makes no causal claims.

Does the design support the causal claims made?

4Credible design; threats named and tested.
3Credible design; main threats named, some tested.
2Plausible design with significant threats named but not tested.
1Causal language on a weak design; threats acknowledged only in passing.
0Correlation presented as causation; threats to validity unaddressed.
C4 Engagement with counter-evidence weight 15

Is the strongest opposing work cited, summarised fairly and answered?

4Strongest opposing work cited, summarised fairly and answered.
3Opposing work summarised fairly and answered in part.
2Opposing work summarised but not substantively answered.
1Opposing work mentioned but dismissed without argument, or used inconsistently.
0Strongest opposing work omitted, or listed in the bibliography but ignored.
C5 Cost-benefit symmetry weight 10N/A only if the paper makes no policy recommendation.

Are costs and benefits of the recommended policy treated with the same rigour?

4Both quantified with the same rigour, or both explicitly unquantified.
3Both quantified with comparable rigour; minor omissions.
2Both quantified, but with visibly different rigour or omitted major cost categories.
1Costs acknowledged qualitatively while benefits are quantified.
0Benefits quantified, costs 'out of scope'.
C6 Reproducibility weight 10

Could a reader re-derive the headline figures from what is published?

4Data, code and assumptions published; headline figures re-derivable.
3Data and assumptions available; code or some steps missing.
2Assumptions stated; data or code unavailable.
1Data sources named but assumptions and method too thin to re-derive.
0Data, code and assumptions unavailable.
C7 Internal consistency weight 10

Are numbers, units, dates and terms consistent across sections, and is the arithmetic right?

4Fully consistent; code checks pass.
3Minor slips only.
2Some inconsistencies or terminology slips, none changing a headline figure.
1Several inconsistencies, at least one affecting a headline figure.
0Numbers, units or dates conflict across sections; arithmetic errors.
C8 Assumption sensitivity weight 5

Are key assumptions varied and the sensitivity of results reported?

4Key assumptions varied and the sensitivity of results reported.
3Key assumptions varied; reporting incomplete.
2Some assumptions varied, but not the ones driving the headline.
1Sensitivity mentioned but not shown.
0Single-point assumptions, never varied.

Context (shown, not scored)

Funding and conflicts disclosure; review status; whether data and code are published.